Thursday, February 29, 2024

XFL Week 6 Picks: Best Bets for Orlando Guardians vs. Seattle Sea Dragons Includes Cody Latimer, Quinten Dormady, Ben DiNucci, and Others

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If you’re looking for Week 6 XFL Orlando Guardians vs. Seattle Sea Dragons odds, picks, and predictions for this Saturday’s matchup, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

Guardians vs. Sea Dragons Week 6 Odds and Betting Lines

The following odds and betting lines for the Guardians vs. Sea Dragons are as of the evening of Friday, March 24, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.

  • Point Spread: Guardians (+9.5)
  • Moneyline: Guardians (+320), Sea Dragons (-390)
  • Over/Under: 42.5 (-110)

Guardians vs. Sea Dragons Picks and Predictions

Full disclosure as always: After going 13-3 on a combined point spread and moneyline of XFL picks in Weeks 3 and 4, I settled into a middling 2-2 performance in Week 5. Fortunately, my struggles with over/unders reversed course, as I finished 3-1.

Of course, much of this gets thrown out the window when we encounter a QB change. Longtime readers know my views on Paxton Lynch, who’s been hanging onto Orlando’s starting QB job by a thread. It took only a few possessions last week for Quinten Dormady to prove he belongs atop the depth chart — at least for now.

To be clear, Dormady has a ways to go to prove he’s the answer to Orlando’s ills. Beating up on the previously winless Vegas Vipers doesn’t make his job safe. Still, Lynch had 4+ games to prove himself.

The Guardians are three games and a tiebreaker out of a playoff spot. MLB’s 1951 New York Giants had a better shot at winning the pennant in mid-July than the Guardians have to reach the postseason. There’s no benefit to trotting out Lynch again. So unless I’m completely mistaken (as I sometimes am, to be honest), this is now Dormady’s offense until/unless he falters more than Lynch did.

This creates a bit of chaos when wagering on this game. How good is Dormady? Because if Lynch were starting, I’d feel far more confident taking the Sea Dragons to cover a lofty point spread. But Dormady is a wild card.

More than that, Dormady is a fascinating story. Earlier this month, he was wrongly accused of giving away the Guardians’ plays to an opposing team and was reportedly released. Then, after a league investigation, he was cleared of wrongdoing. Orlando took him back. Water under the bridge, right?

Nope. Imagine if you were wrongly accused of something at work, fired, and then everyone else in your industry knew that you should never be hired again. And then you’re cleared. Except there’s still an air of distrust.

That’s a lot to deal with. And the fact that Dormady shined when given a shot last weekend says a lot about his ability to put this mess behind him. It also says a lot about his teammates and coaching staff. I’m not sure many non-NFL QBs could have overcome a nearly career-ruining incident so quickly, and as a sudden replacement to a struggling starter.

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Things are more clear-cut in Seattle. After an impressive victory over the previously undefeated Houston Roughnecks, the Sea Dragons have now won three straight. They should beat Orlando, whose defense has yielded 30.4 points per game — including 30 to the offensively struggling San Antonio Brahmas and 35 to the similarly struggling Vipers.

Essentially, the Guardians have elevated opposing offenses. Seattle’s No. 1 in offensive yards per game. So how can Orlando possibly remain competitive?

Well, as alluded to above, their passing attack will need to pick up where it left off. But yes, they’ll need to force some stops on a Sea Dragons unit whose QB leads the league in passing yards, whose lead RB is one yard shy of being co-No. 2 in rushing yards, and whose top two WRs are first and fifth in receiving yards.

This top-heavy offense includes a wide swath of supporting players. But their “big four” (or “big five” if we include the very capable Blake Jackson) are as productive as any XFL team’s top players.

Yet, Ben DiNucci continues to be his own worst enemy. He leads the league with seven interceptions. No other quarterback has more than four. He’s endured five fumbles — more than any other player at any position.

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If Seattle were 1-4, there might be serious talk about DiNucci’s standing atop the depth chart. Because as much as he’s lit up the stat sheet, he’s also been a frequent offensive liability.

I like Orlando keeping this game relatively close. DiNucci still hasn’t demonstrated that he can play close to error-free football in this league. While this matchup is ideal for him and Seattle should post 30+ points, I believe the Guardians’ nothing-to-lose offense will pressure the Sea Dragons enough to keep things interesting.

  • Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Guardians (+9.5)
  • Recommended Moneyline Bet: Sea Dragons (-390)
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110)

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