Thursday, February 29, 2024

Week 14 NFL Milestone Bets – Player Prop Alt-Totals

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50-plus receiving yards

Dallas Goedert will return to action Sunday night and, since it was an arm injury, his overall conditioning will be just fine in a game that has the highest total of the week. 

The Eagles head indoors as the 3.5-point underdog in Arlington, so the potential game script favors more passing. The tight end posted 25 catches and 322 yards in the five games before his injury and will look for his fourth 50-yard game over a six-game stretch, which is paying +225 this week.

Goedert had three catches for 50 yards in the last meeting where he fractured his arm in the second half. He could be in for another similar output as Dallas is a Bottom-10 team at defending the position and the TE has put up 67 and 66 yards in his last two games in Dallas. 

It’s perfect passing conditions, the game script is in his favor, and he might not lose many snaps in his return as his conditioning is fine. This game will also be very competitive with what is at stake meaning more meaningful snaps. Sign me up for +225 at 50-plus yards. 

THE BLITZ is projecting 53.34 yards making this better than a 50% win rate at +225. 

Dallas Goedert prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+225 at bet365)

100-plus receiving yards

I’m well aware that Josh Dobbs is not Kirk Cousins, but Justin Jefferson’s markets are way too low this week at 69.5, especially considering the indoor setting. 

This will be the first game that Dobbs and Jefferson will be together, so there’s a chance that Dobbs just feeds the reigning OPTY. Bettors saw how inaccurate books can be with pricing elite receivers/back-up quarterback combos as was the case with Ja’Marr Chase, who had a receiving yard total open at 59.5 before going off for 149 yards just last week.

Jefferson has been practicing over his 21-day window and should be able to take on a full slate of routes Sunday vs. the Raiders, who could be without their best pass rusher in Maxx Crosby who enters the weekend questionable. 

Over his 55 career games, the Vikings receiver has hit the 100-yard mark 49% of the time, 125-plus yards 31%, and 150-plus yards 18%. He also averages 110.5 receiving yards indoors per match vs. 80.9 yards outdoors. 

With a low receiving total, his 100-plus yard milestone is paying a generous +270, which is a full-unit play from me. 

Justin Jefferson prop:100-plus receiving yards (+270 at bet365)

75-plus rushing yards

The passing conditions have improved in Baltimore, but it will still be a run-first game for the Ravens vs. the indoor Rams, who enter as 7.5-point road dogs. 

The Week 14 weather forecast is calling for heavy rain, crosswinds of 14 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph. It’s a game that the Ravens, who run the ball at the highest rate in football at 51%, could see a jump in rush rate.

Rookie RB Keaton Mitchell paced the backfield in rushes in Week 12 before the bye and could get the post-bye rookie bump heading into a heavy Week 14 workload. 

He carried the ball nine times for 64 yards in Week 12 and has been the much better runner as the rookie has 269 rushing yards on 29 attempts (9.3 yards per rush) vs. Gus Edwards and his 4.1 yards per carry since Week 6. 

Lamar Jackson has also been dealing with an illness this week. There is a chance his designed rushing plays get scaled back and dispersed to the hot hand, which is Mitchell, who got the first carry in Week 12 and has seen his snap share go from 22% to 37% to 46% over the last three games. 

I wouldn’t mind a stab at his 15-carry milestone at a whopping +925, and think it might be worth a sprinkle, but the Ravens play slow and don’t run a ton of plays, making his 75-plus rush yards at +425 the better avenue. It’s 0.75 units there and I’ll add another 0.33 units on his 25-plus receiving yards at +330. 

Keaton Mitchell prop: 75-plus rushing yards (+425 at bet365)

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