Monday, December 4, 2023

Premier League Betting Preview: Can Liverpool Bounce Back At Man City?

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With curtains falling on the international break, the Premier League is back once again. 

With some incredible games to look forward to, we’ve compiled some stats to help you find the value in the betting market this weekend. 

Manchester City vs Liverpool

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: Etihad Stadium

TV: BT Sport 1/BT Sport Ultimate

Kick-Off: 12.30pm

Betfred Match Odds: Man City 4/7, Liverpool 9/2, Draw 16/5

Man City come into Saturday’s early kick-off unbeaten in their last six in the Premier League (W5), while Liverpool return to league action for the first time in three weeks having been handed a shock 1-0 defeat to struggling Bournemouth last time out. 

Head-to-head, City were 3-2 winners when these sides last met in the League Cup in December, but Liverpool won the last three before that and have only been beaten twice in the last nine encounters between these sides in all competitions. 

Mohammed Salah has scored in each of his last three appearances against Pep Guardiola’s side. With ten goals and five assists against the Cityzens, the Egyptian forward has only had better returns against Manchester United in his career (12 goals, 4 assists).

Mo Salah to score anytime – 9/4

AFC Bournemouth vs Fulham

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: Vitality Stadium

Kick-Off: 3pm

Betfred Match Odds: Bournemouth 6/4, Fulham 7/4, Draw 12/5

The last three meetings between the Cherries and Cottagers have ended in draws, however Fulham won their only Premier League away contest with Bournemouth 1-0 in 2019, courtesy of a sole Aleksandar Mitrovic goal.  

Bournemouth will be on a high following their 1-0 win over Liverpool last time out but have been in dreadful form overall since the conclusion of the World Cup. Gary O’Neil’s side have lost more games (8), won fewer points (8) and scored fewer goals (7) than any other side since the competition in Qatar came to an end. 

Fulham aren’t exactly in great form themselves, having lost two top-flight games on the bounce, but they have yet to lose three in a row this season and have only been beaten once by a side not in the top half (West Ham 3-1, October) 

Bournemouth-Fulham draw – 12/5

Nottingham Forest vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: City Ground

Kick-Off: 3pm

Betfred Match Odds: Forest 15/8, Wolves 8/5, Draw 21/10

This weekend sees the first top-flight encounter between Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers since 1983, when Brian Clough was in the dugout. 

Forest don’t have the best record in the league against Wolves, with just one win in eight, losing five. Their last victory over Wolves came in the Championship in 2018. Steve Cooper’s side have also conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches this term.

Wolves aren’t in much better form with just one win in their last six, losing four, including their last two. Julen Lopetegui’s men have only managed to keep one clean sheet in their last seven and have conceded six in their last two. 

Over 2.5 match goals – 11/8

Crystal Palace vs Leicester City

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: Selhurst Park

Kick-Off: 3pm

Betfred Match Odds: Palace 8/5, Leicester 9/5, Draw 11/5

Crystal Palace have the unfortunate tag of being the only team in England’s top four tiers to remain winless in 2023, following Forest Green’s League One upset over Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday. 

The Eagles have lost seven and drawn five of their 12 games this year, pulling them into the Premier League relegation dogfight in the process. They are winless in 13 in all competitions, making it their longest such run since 1980/81. Interestingly, the 14th match in that run was a 1-1 draw with Leicester and they were subsequently relegated that season. 

Despite winning four straight against Leicester between 2017 and 2019, Palace are now without victory against the Foxes in their last seven, losing four. However, Leicester have won just once at Selhurst Park in their last six visits, with the last two finishing level. 

Arsenal vs Leeds United

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: Emirates Stadium

Kick-Off: 3pm

Betfred Match Odds: Arsenal 2/7, Leeds 10/1, Draw 9/2

League leaders Arsenal will be confident in keeping their momentum going when they take on a Leeds United side who they are unbeaten against in 13 matches across all competitions, winning 11. However, fans of the Gunners might have some reason to be nervous with Leeds’ last win coming in 2003, a 3-2 victory that put the final nail in the coffin for Arsenal’s title bid. 

Leeds haven’t drawn away at Arsenal in the Premier League since a 0-0 draw in 1993, failing to keep a clean sheet in all 13 meetings since then and conceding 31 times. 

Arsenal are bidding to win seven Premier League games in a row for the first time since the 2018/19 season under Unai Emery. 

Over 2.5 Arsenal goals – 11/10

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: Amex Stadium

Kick-Off: 3pm

Betfred Match Odds: Brighton 8/13, Brentford 4/1, Draw 3/1

The recent history between Brighton and Brentford, who are battling for a spot in the Europa League next season, suggests that this encounter will be a close one. Of the last six competitive fixtures between these sides, Brighton hold three wins, Brentford hold two, with a 3-3 draw sandwiched in between. 

Considering the tight nature this fixture could provide, it might be worth taking a look at the goal scorer markets, particularly concerning Brentford’s Ivan Toney. The recent England debutant has 16 goals to his name in the Premier League and is third in the top scorer charts. Six of those goals have been match-openers, so Toney to score first at 6/1 looks decent value. 

For Brighton, Alexis Mac Allister, Solly March, and Kaoru Mitoma lead the way in the number of goals scored for the Seagulls with seven, six and six respectively. Any of these could be worth considering in the score anytime market. 

Ivan Toney to score first – 6/1

Chelsea vs Aston Villa

When: Saturday 1st April

Where: Stamford Bridge

TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Sky Sports Premier League

Kick-Off: 5.30pm

Betfred Match Odds: Chelsea 8/13, Aston Villa 9/2, Draw 11/4

In Saturday’s kick-off, Chelsea should be confident of maintaining their upturn in form against an Aston Villa side who have only beaten them once in their 11 contests (W9 D1). In fact, the Viilans have only won once at Stamford Bridge in their 17 visits, losing six of their last seven since a 3-1 win in 2011. 

After a woeful start to life under Graham Potter, the Blues are starting to show signs of life, winning two of their last three – as many as their previous 15. They’ve also found the scoring boots, with six goals in three, as many as they had in their previous 15.

Chelsea win and over 2.5 match goals – 6/4

West Ham United vs Southampton

When: Sunday 2nd April

Where: London Stadium 

TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Sky Sports Premier League

Kick-Off: 2pm 

Betfred Match Odds: West Ham 8/11, Southampton 18/5, Draw 11/4

Sunday’s Premier League action begins with a fascinating showdown between two strugglers. 

The Hammers have had some decent results against basement club Southampton in recent meetings, losing just one of their last 10 encounters with the Saints, winning six and drawing three. However, West Ham’s last defeat to Southampton was in this exact fixture last term when they were beaten 3-2. David Moyes’ men are also on a four-game unbeaten run at the London Stadium. 

Both teams have scored in the last three meetings between these teams, with two of those seeing over 3.5 match goals.

West Ham win and both teams to score – 11/4

Newcastle United vs Manchester United

When: Sunday 2nd April

Where: St James’ Park 

TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Sky Sports Premier League

Kick-Off: 4.30pm

Betfred Match Odds: Newcastle 7/5, Man United 15/8, Draw 12/5

In a rematch of the Carabao Cup final, it is the losers who approach this fixture in the better form. 

Manchester United are winless in the league since beating Newcastle at Wembley last month, with a 7-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool and 0-0 draw with Southampton in their two league fixtures since the final. Newcastle meanwhile were beaten by Man City in their first league game back, but have since recorded two wins over Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers. 

However, Newcastle are winless in their last seven encounters with the Red Devils, with their last victory coming in 2019. Five of those seven have seen both teams score. 

Alexander Isak has three goals in two for the hosts and is worth considering in the goalscorer markets. 

Manchester United win – 15/8

Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur

When: Monday 3rd April

Where: Goodison Park

TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Sky Sports Premier League

Kick-Off: 8pm 

Betfred Match Odds: Everton 5/2, Spurs 11/10, Draw 23/10

Monday Night Football sees two sides at separate ends of the table go head-to-head, but both come into the game with similar form. Everton and Spurs have won one, drawn two and lost two of their respective last five games in all competitions.

Spurs have won the last two matches against Everton, scoring seven goals without reply. The Toffees have failed to score against the north London outfit since November 2021 but given that Southampton put three past Spurs last time out, Everton will fancy their chances. 

Fresh from breaking England’s all-time scorer record over the international break, Harry Kane will be looking to close the gap on Erling Haaland in the race for the Premier League boot. Kane has 21 goals to his name in the league and four in his last four. 

Harry Kane to score anytime – 5/6

18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject To Change

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