Wednesday, December 6, 2023

PGA TOUR Golf Sleepers: Four Valero Texas Open Longshots

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It’s the final week of the year before The Masters kicks off, and as tempting as it is to look ahead, the task at hand for now is to build up our bankroll for Masters odds at the 2023 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. Thanks to Matt Wallace’s heroics at the Corales Puntacana Championship, our bankroll is already trending in the right direction, but we’ll look to keep the momentum going with our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. 

With a majority of the best players in the world focused on The Masters next week, the lack of imposing stars at the top of the board in this event has naturally opened the door for many longshot winners. Three of the last four winners of the Valero Texas Open have won at 200-1 opening odds, so with one final spot in the field at Augusta up for grabs for the winner, it’s a great week to reach back for some longshot outright bets.


Standing at 7,438 yards, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is more accessible for accurate plodders than the yardage may suggest. With heavy tree lines and firm fairways, driving accuracy has proven to be a reliable skillset to bring to TPC San Antonio. Accurate ball-strikers – particularly in other windy set ups – with familiarity around Bermuda greens are best suited to attack this course.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my Valero Texas Open preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Valero Texas Open picks, with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.


From a golf betting perspective, there is not much reason to feel intimidated by the favorites in this week’s event, so given the prior history from longshots, it’s a very viable tournament to build out a longer card with exposure to players beyond 50-1 odds.

In terms of DFS, the lack of depth in the field creates an uncomfortable pool of $6K golfers to choose from, so I’m likely to roll out a more balanced build in my DFS lineup construction this week.

Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 Valero Texas Open. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Brendon Todd (, $7,900)

With odds gradually dwindling south of 50-1 over the course of this week, Todd may not qualify as a “longshot” any longer, but a spot in the $7K range on Draft Kings is still enough to earn a place in this article. Todd played his best golf in Texas last season, finishing T8 in this event and a season-best T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In the new 2023 season, his form has continued to improve, already picking up three top-10 finishes between the Fortinet Championship, CJ Cup, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Once of the shortest hitters on TOUR, Todd has compensated with elite driving accuracy, long-irons, and short game to remain in contention on short and long courses alike. He ranks top-15 in SG: ARG, SG: P, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling, Par-5 Scoring, Course History, and Comp Course History, all encouraging signs for yet another high finish in Texas this week.

Aaron Rai (, $7,900)

A moderately challenging course that diminishes the importance of driving distance with balanced difficulty across all facets from tee-to-green and an emphasis on accurate ball-striking is a picture perfect set up for Aaron Rai. The 2020 Scottish Open champion has proven to be a strong fit in firm and windy set ups. In his last trip to Texas, he finished T7 at the Houston Open. Rai showed impressive form in his last start at THE PLAYERS as well, finishing T19 with an ace on the famous 17th hole.

An unusually cold putter has masked the fact that he ranks No. 2 in SG: T2G over his last 12 rounds, and with ranks of No. 3 in Good Drives Gained and No. 9 in SG: Ball Striking, Rai is the 8th ranked player in my model this week. Finishing T29 in his Valero debut last year, Rai is the ideal profile of player to attack this course set up.

Akshay Bhatia (, $7,000)

The Valero Texas Open field was announced shortly after Akshay carded a second-round 63 at the Corales Puntacana Championship to leap inside the top-3 before the weekend. At that time, after glossing through the rest of the Valero field, I was convinced Bhatia would be a top-10 favorite in this event. Unfortunately for him (though fortunate for us Valero Texas Open bettors), he shot a modest -1 over the weekend and drifted back to a T24 finish.

A mediocre weekend in Punta Cana aside, Akshay has impressed in his limited opportunities on the PGA TOUR thus far in 2023. Over six starts this season, he has just one missed cut and three top-25 finishes. Each of those finishes have come in severely windy conditions, so the Texas climate should be a breeze for Bhatia. With all three of his best finishes coming internationally beyond the scope of ShotLink, his stats won’t due his current form justice, but he’s a great fit for the task at hand in San Antonio, and was an early bet on my outright card.

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Brent Grant (, $6,400)

This is supposed to be a “sleepers” article, and it’s started off tremendously chalky, so let’s spice it up a little with this last salary saver. Grant is a fiery golfer who wears his emotions on his sleeves, as he showed in his 2022 Simmons Bank Open victory on the Korn Ferry Tour. The 2023 rookie has been slow out the gates, but seems to be catching his stride now with three top-25 finishes and just one missed cut over his last five starts. He’s leaned primarily on his driver for consistency over that span, ranking No. 4 in the field in SG: OTT over the last 36 rounds. Coming off a T8 showing under comparable long and windy conditions at Corales, Grant has plenty of upside to keep the momentum going ahead of his Valero Texas Open debut this week.

Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!


Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc.

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