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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 11/26/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 12

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Game: New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA


Odds/Point Spread: Falcons (-1)

Total/Over-Under: 42

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) will play the New Orleans Saints (5-5) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Atlanta opens this contest as 1-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 42.

The New Orleans Saints come into this matchup with a record of 5-5 for this year. In their last contest, the Saints faced the Vikings and ended up losing by a score of 27-19. Jameis Winston connected on 13/25 with 122 yards passing and 2 TDs. He had a QB rating of 59.1 and ended the contest with 2 picks. Chris Olave had an average of 15.7 yards per catch by accumulating 94 yards on 6 catches. Alvin Kamara was the leader on the ground for the Saints with 9 carries for 42 yards (4.7 yards per attempt). Once the final whistle blew, they had 61 plays for 280 yards. The New Orleans Saints ended up rushing 15 times and amassed 65 yds, earning them an average of 4.3 yards per tote. When it came to stopping the run, the Saints gave up 125 yds on 33 attempts, which is an average of 3.8 yards per run allowed. New Orleans allowed 23 completions on 34 attempts for a total of 263 yds, and a completion percentage of 67.6%.

The Saints have racked up 3,374 total yards over the course of this year. New Orleans has tallied 113 first downs, and they have been hurt by 64 infractions for 592 yds. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, New Orleans has earned 13 touchdowns through the air and 7 touchdowns on the ground. They have turned the football over 12 times (7 interceptions and 5 fumbles lost). As a team they maintain an average of 100.0 yards on the ground which has them sitting 22nd in the NFL. Regarding scoring, the New Orleans Saints are sitting at 21.4 points per outing.

When it comes to passing yards, the Saints have conceded 1,991 yards which has them sitting in 8th in the National Football League. They are giving up 199.1 yards per outing via the pass as well as giving up a completion percentage of 58.8%. In total, they have allowed 312.7 yards per game ranking them 8th in football. They are giving up 4.3 yards per rushing attempt and 113.6 rushing yards per contest for the year. During this campaign, they have allowed 1,136 rushing yards through 10 games. The Saints sit in 8th in the NFL regarding team defense, conceding 19.8 PPG.

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The Falcons step onto the field holding a record of 4-6 this season. When they last took the field, the Falcons took a loss by a final score of 25-23 when they played the Cardinals. Taylor Heinicke (1 TD) ended the game with 55 yds on 8/15 through the air while his QB rate was 84. He didn’t toss any picks and his average yds per pass attempt was 3.7 yards. Drake London was featured in the passing game for the Falcons, bringing in 3 throws for 36 yards (12.0 yards per reception). Bijan Robinson carried the rock 22 times for 95 yds, finishing the game with 4.3 yards per carry for Atlanta. The Falcons finished with 254 yds and they ran 65 plays (3.9 yards per play). Atlanta ended up running for 4.5 yards per attempt, finishing with 184 yards on 41 attempts. Atlanta allowed 26 rushing attempts for 122 yards (4.7 yds per carry). The Falcons passing defense allowed a completion rate of 59.4%, surrendering 230 yds on 19 for 32 passing.

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The Atlanta Falcons average 335.3 yards/game which ranks them 15th in the NFL. They average 130.4 yards per game via the rush and have toted the ball for 1,304 yards for the year. They have given away 7 picks while letting opponents recover 9 fumbles and they have been able to tally 110 first downs. The Atlanta offense has racked up 493 yds of penalties on 54 violations, ranking them 29th in football in terms of giving up free yards. For the season so far, the Falcons have thrown for a total of 2,049 yards through the air as well as an average of 204.9 passing yards per game, giving them a rank of 21st out of all NFL teams. When looking at their scoring prowess, the Falcons are sitting 24th in the league by tallying 18.9 points per game.

The Falcons are allowing 21.7 points per game, which has them sitting 18th in the league. They have given up 17 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 200.4 yards per outing, which has them in 9th in football. Atlanta has conceded a total of 1,084 yards via the ground game (108.4 yards per outing) in addition to 4 touchdowns on the ground for the season. The Falcons defense has been on the field for 620 plays, which ranks 8th in the NFL. Their defense has 10 turnovers (5 fumbles and 5 picks) this season. In total, they have surrendered 217 points in total.

Who will win tonight’s Saints/Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Guy’s Pick: Take the Saints +1

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