Monday, December 4, 2023

Miami Open Odds & Picks – Men’s Singles Quarterfinals

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Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) celebrates after match point

Mar 28, 2023; Miami, Florida, US; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) celebrates after match point against Tommy Paul (USA) (not pictured) on day nine of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

  • No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev remain the favorites to reach the Miami Open final
  • Alcaraz, who must defend his title to remain No. 1, has the tougher remaining draw of the two
  • Read on as we break down the men’s quarterfinals and make our Miami Open picks

Two of the Miami Open men’s quarterfinals will be played Wednesday – Emil Ruusuvuori vs Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz. The other two will be played Thursday. We have our top Miami Open picks for the quarterfinals here.

Miami Open Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Emil Ruusuvuori (FIN) vs. [10] Jannik Sinner (IT)A +570 / -850
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs. [9] Taylor Fritz (USA) -350 /+260
[25] Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) vs. [14] Karen Khachanov (RUS) +235 / -300
[Q] Christopher Eubanks (USA) vs. [4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +1020 / -1800

Sinner, Alcaraz, Karen Khachanov and Medvedev are the favorites in the above odds to advance to the Miami Open semifinals. Odds as of March 29 at FanDuel.

The longest shot is American qualifier Chris Eubanks, a tall, huge server who is into the top 100 for the first time in his career this week at age 26, and is playing on a cloud.

Ruusuvuori vs Sinner Prediction

Ruusuvuori, a 23-year-old from Finland, has had a fairly sweet draw in reaching the Miami Open quarterfinals: qualifier Nuno Borges, Roberto Bautista Agut, wild card Taro Daniel and then No. 26 seed Botic Van de Zandschulp, whom he edged out 7-5 in the third set in the round of 16.

The first set of that match was the only set Ruusuvuori has lost so far.

This is the third straight year Ruusuovuori and Sinner will meet in Miami, but this is the deepest-ever into the tournament.

Last year, Sinner barely eked out a victory in his opener. But the Italian is playing a whole lot better so far in 2023 than he was a year ago.

Ruusuvuori vs Sinner Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Monte Carlo Masters (R32) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-3 Sinner
2022 Miami Masters (R64) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (8) Sinner
2021 Washington (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-4 Sinner
2021 Miami Masters (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-2 Sinner

After a first-round bye, Sinner has not lost a set. And he has faced  quality opponents in No. 21 seed Grigor Dimitrov and No. 6 Andrey Rublev., both of whom excel on a fast hard court.

Miami Open Picks: Over Sinner in Two Sets (-230)

Alcaraz vs Fritz Prediction

This shapes up as the most competitive of the four matches with Fritz – ranked No. 10 and seeded No. 9, but at a career high No. 5 just a month ago – the best of the “underdog” quarterfinalists.

Somewhat surprisingly, the two are meeting for the first time.

Which if you’re looking for slight edges in the American’s favor, is a small one. Everyone has been scouting for ways to beat Alcaraz, but that might not be as true the other way around.

But Fritz has fewer ways to beat an opponent than Alcaraz does. It’s pretty straightforward: big serve, big forehand. But if you get him on the run or moving forward, you can control the points.

Alcaraz’s drop shot may well come into play here as the American is a determined mover, but not an overly spry one – especially to the forecourt.

Fritz can get tips from his friend and compatriot Tommy Paul, who lost to Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4 in the round of 16 on Tuesday.

Miami Opens Picks: Alcaraz to win First Set, and the Match (-174)

Eubanks vs Medvedev Prediction

Eubanks might not love the description, but he’s the Cinderella story in this Miami Open final eight.

After playing college tennis, the 6-foot-7 American’s rise in the ATP rankings has been hard work. Finally, last month, he got achingly close to the top 100 at No. 102, and entered the Miami Open at No. 119.

With his run to the quarterfinals, he’ll be about No. 85 and if he manages to beat Medvedev, in the top 60.

That’s a tall order, as evidenced by the +1020 longshot odds.

His 7-6, 7-6 win over crafty French lefty Adrian Mannarino Tuesday night was delayed a number of times by rain, finishing in the wee hours.

Mannarino’s take was that basically that Eubanks was going for everything, and because he was playing “on a cloud”, everything was going in.

That’s probably not far from the truth.

It it enough for Medvedev? Unlikely. But he might well be willing to serve-volley and take advantage of the Russian’s deep return position.

If he can be successful often enough, he’ll make it closer than people expect. Although not enough to win.

Miami Open Picks: Eubanks will win over 7.5 Games (-116)

Stephanie Myles

Sports Writer


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