Sunday, February 25, 2024

Miami Open 2023: Tennis best bets, odds and predictions for Friday, March 31st

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Tennis best bet for the action at the Miami Open on Friday, March 31st

Rain delays have really put a damper on a great Miami Open thus far, but we’re marching on with more action on Friday, March 31st. I have two tennis best bets written up for this slate, but that doesn’t mean I won’t add more. Make sure you check out the Pro Picks page, where I might be adding another play in the morning. I’ll be doing some more research on that meeting between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, and I would like to have a play on that one eventually. 

I have been throwing plays on the picks page throughout the course of the tournament, with some being ones that aren’t included in these stories. I like to see how lines moves and will occasionally throw an extra bet or two on my card. So, you might miss out on some bets if you aren’t checking that every now and then. With that out of the way, keep reading for the tennis picks for Friday! 

MORE: Here are the tennis odds for every match you’ll see today!

Karen Khachanov vs. Daniil Medvedev

These two met in Adelaide back in January, when Medvedev earned a 6-3, 6-3 win. It took Medvedev only an hour and 18 minutes to beat Khachanov in Australia, but this one should be a bit more competitive.

Medvedev is playing much better tennis right now than he was then, which is definitely the hard part to come to grips with when making a bet like this. However, fatigue has to be a factor for him at some point. Medvedev won three tournaments in a row before losing in the finals at Indian Wells, and he’s now into the semifinals here. That has to be draining both physically and mentally, and Khachanov has been playing some great tennis this week. The 26-year-old has already earned wins over Jiri Lehecka, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Francisco Cerundolo this week. And now we’re just banking on him to win a single set against Medvedev.

On top of Khachanov being a bit fresher than his opponent in this one, it’s also just a little wild to see plus-money odds on this when the 26-year-old is rock solid with the ball on his racquet. His serve is big enough to get him deep into sets in this matchup, and anything can happen from there. With that said, we’re taking a shot on Khachanov to keep things close against his fellow countryman. He hasn’t lost a set in any of his last three matches, so it’ll take some stellar stuff from Medvedev to prevent him from simply making this competitive.

Bet: Khachanov +1.5 Sets (+105) 

Sorana Cirstea vs. Petra Kvitova 

We mentioned fatigue being an issue for Medvedev in our last writeup, but it will be an even bigger problem for Kvitova. The lefty had to play her quarter-final match against Ekaterina Alexandrova Thursday afternoon, and she now must turn around and play a red-hot Cirstea on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Cirstea last played on Wednesday and has had the luxury of getting to rest and strategize for an extra day.

Cirstea is also 4-1 in five career hard-court meetings with Kvitova, and the Romanian is serving at a high level early in the 2023 season. That has been a part of her game that has been missing in the past, but she’s going to have a great shot at winning this match if she can hold serve relatively easily. Cirstea is a very good returner, so she’ll give herself enough opportunities to break.

Kvitova also looked lousy against Alexandrova last match, and she kept giving her opponent a chance to steal that win. She won’t be able to do the same against Cirstea, who is playing some of the best tennis of her career. Cirstea just beat Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets, so this version of her can beat anyone.

Bet: Cirstea ML (+140) 

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