Sunday, December 3, 2023

LIV Golf Orlando Picks & Odds: DJ, Smith Favored in Orlando

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LIV Golf is gearing up for its third event of the season, but this week is particularly important as headliners like Dustin Johnson and Cam Smith prepare for the Masters next week. Read more in our full LIV Golf Orlando betting preview below.

The LIV Golf season rolls on with LIV Golf Orlando — its second American stop — going down at Orange County National this weekend.

With Dustin Johnson and Cam Smith among the favorites on the Masters odds board, there’s an added incentive for those teeing it up next week to play well and head to Augusta in good form.

Find out who’s in the running in our full LIV Golf Orlando betting preview below, including outright odds, free golf betting picks, and more. 

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LIV Golf Orlando picks and predictions

Dustin Johnson (+1,100 – 0.5 units)

After a disappointing start to the LIV season at Mayakoba, Dustin Johnson rebounded nicely in Tucson with a 13th-place finish. Not only did he nearly crack the Top 10, but DJ was excelling through the first two days prior to his 77 on Sunday.

If it had not been for Sunday’s poor showing, DJ would have had a real shot at winning his second LIV tournament, something you could see happening in Orlando. Immediately establishing his dominance on the LIV circuit, he has now posted Top-8 finishes in six of his nine tournament appearances, including his win in Boston last year.

A strong iron player and fantastic putter, DJ finished his last season on Tour ranked 28th in strokes gained putting and produced a GIR% north of 66%. Before returning to Augusta next week, look for DJ to get into form against a much weaker LIV field.

Mito Pereira (+1,600 – 0.3 units)

Making a strong statement in his LIV debut in Tucson, Mito Pereira posted a T6 finish and collected a handsome $670,000 for three days’ work, which I’m sure eased his mind about his transition from PGA to LIV. This strong debut was a result of his brilliant approach game, which should not be shocking given his history of strong iron play.

In Tucson, Pereira drilled over 72% of greens in regulation, which now ranks him second in that category for the 2023 LIV season. The biggest signing for LIV this season, the 27-year-old Chilean was a big prospect on Tour prior to his departure.

Many of you may remember his infamous meltdown on 18 at the PGA Championship, a major he quite frankly should have won if not for a disastrous decision to take out the driver with the lead on the final hole. That was one of three Top-7 finishes Pereira posted in 2021-22, a strong campaign that came thanks to his terrific iron play.

That season, he finished 14th on Tour in GIR% while also finishing in the positive for strokes gained putting. 

Peter Uihlein (+3,300 – 0.2 units)

Switching over to 4Aces GC this season, Peter Uihlein has made an immediate impact on DJ’s team. Through the first two events, Uihlein boasts two Top-10 finishes, including his runner-up finish at Mayakoba.

Finishing in second place has become a common theme for Uihlein on the LIV circuit, having done so three times through nine events. In fact, Uihlein boasts five Top-10 finishes over that stretch, making him one of LIV’s most consistent golfers to have not yet won an event.

That could all change this week at Crooked Cat, a track that rewards a strong approach game. Currently, Uihlein is tied for sixth this season in GIR%.

Crooked Cat should complement Uihlein’s strengths well. In his last full season on Tour, he finished 36th in strokes gained putting, and boasted a GIR% of nearly 68%. At 33/1, it’s worth taking a shot on Uihlein to finally break through and capture his first LIV victory after knocking on the door numerous times.

Odds to win LIV Golf Orlando

Golfer Odds to win LIV Golf Orlando
Dustin Johnson +1,100
Cameron Smith +1,100
Joaquin Niemann +1,200
Mito Pereira +1,400
Paul Casey +1,600
Charles Howell III +1,800
Abraham Ancer +1,800
Talor Gooch +1,800
Brendan Steele +2,000
Sergio Garcia +2,000
Louis Oosthuizen +2,500
Branden Grace +2,800
Thomas Pieters +3,000
Peter Uihlein +3,500
Marc Leishman +3,500
Brooks Koepka +4,000
Kevin Na +4,000
Jason Kokrak +4,000

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 28, 2023. 

LIV Golf Orlando field and favorites

It’s certainly no shock to see Dustin Johnson (2020 Masters champ) and Cameron Smith occupying the top spots this week at +1,100 apiece. Neither has been overly impressive through the first two events, but their talent is undeniable and it’s only a matter of time before these LIV Golf headliners find their way back into contention. 

Joaquin Niemann is the best of the rest at +1,200, despite finishing 37th in Arizona last time out. Mito Pereira, meanwhile, is climbing the board after a sixth-place finish in Tucson and sits fourth at +1,400, just ahead of veteran Paul Casey at +1,600.

The other notables, particularly as it pertains to the Masters next week, include Abraham Ancer (+1,800), 2017 Masters winner Sergio Garcia (+2,000), and four-time major champion Brooks Koepka (+4,000).

Crooked Cat at Orange County National course notes

Crooked Cat at Orange County National hosts LIV Golf in its third event of the season following a one-week hiatus. Crooked Cat is a 7,278-yard, Par-71 track designed by David Harman and Phil Ritson.

Despite never being utilized on a professional level, this course previously played host to events on the Korn Ferry Tour and the PGA Tour Q School. A links-style layout, Crooked Cat features an open landscape with wide fairways and tough greens that rewards strong approach shots and solid putting while giving leeway to those who struggle off the tee.

The two most important metrics to look at for this course include greens in regulation percentage (GIR%) and strokes gained putting (SG: Putting). This tournament is LIV Golf’s second appearance in Florida and the first in Orlando.

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LIV Golf recent winners and odds history

Let’s take a look at some recent LIV Golf winners and their closing odds to win:

Event Golfer Closing odds
Tucson (March 2023) Danny Lee +8,000
Mayakoba (Feb. 2023) Charles Howell III +4,000
Jeddah (Oct. 2022) Brooks Koepka +2,500
Bangkok (Oct. 2022) Eugenio Chacarra +15,000
Chicago (Sept. 2022) Cameron Smith +600
Boston (Sept. 2022) Dustin Johnson +600
Bedminster (July 2022) Henrik Stenson +6,000
Portland (July 2022) Branden Grace +3,500
London (June 2022) Charl Schwartzel +3,000

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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