Lamar Jackson has toted the rock for the Ravens plenty of time this season, but could a matchup with a reinvigorated Rams defense limit Lamar’s efficiency as a runner?
As the Rams look to climb back into the playoff picture, it could be a tough matchup for the explosive Baltimore offense.
In addition to our NFL Week 14 predictions and NFL Week 14 player props and best bets, here are our best Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for the Rams vs. Ravens Week 14 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for Week 14
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Lamar Jackson player props
Jackson Under 47.5 rushing yards (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
The obvious inclination on Lamar Jackson’s props this season is to ride his rushing totals, as Jackson has been such a volume rusher from the quarterback position as he guides the Ravens to being one of the top offenses in the league. But this week’s number has me a little hesitant against a Rams defense that has played some nasty football in recent weeks.
Jackson’s rushing line is up to 47.5 yards across our best sportsbooks. He has cleared that number in just five of 12 games this season. The Rams recently held another mobile quarterback, Kyler Murray, to two rushing yards on one carry.
Jackson’s game is more predicated on running the ball than Murray’s at this stage of their respective careers, but there could be a chance of the Rams reasonably keeping Lamar in check on the ground Sunday. Most of our best sportsbooks list the odds at -115 on either side, but Caesars boosts the Under to -104, making their book the best spot for this prop.
Visit our Google News page and click “Follow” (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!
Jackson Over 9.5 rushing attempts (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The angle I want to take on Jackson’s rushing stats is to fade his yardage while threading the needle by buying into the frequency of his attempts against Los Angeles. Jackson has had several games this season in which he has averaged 4.0 YPC or lower, including his most recent win against the Chargers. In that game, Jackson ran 11 times for 39 yards.
Because of the juicy +112 odds on Over 9.5 rushing attempts at FanDuel, we’re looking for a replication of that script against the Rams. I like the Rams to cover the 7.5-point spread against Baltimore, meaning Jackson could run more frequently to attempt to take control of a tight contest.
Our other NFL prop betting sites list this line at 8.5 rushing attempts with odds between -145 and -150 on Over. This wager is reduced to a three-star recommendation at those prices due to the diminished return on investment.
Jackson Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-175 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Ravens are tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns this season, which has meant fewer opportunities for Jackson to throw for scores when Baltimore gets into the red zone. The Rams have one of the stingiest pass defenses when it comes to allowing opposing quarterbacks to connect with his pass-catchers for touchdowns.
Los Angeles has allowed just 1.1 passing scores per game this season, which is tied for 5th in the NFL. Jackson has thrown for multiple touchdown passes just four times all year, so we like the Under 1.5 TD passes prop, in general. For the Under to be worthwhile as a wager in this matchup, we must consider whether the odds are worth playing.
With -200 odds DraftKings and FanDuel, it’s a definite stay away. But getting Under 1.5 TD passes down to -175 at bet365, we’re willing to take the plunge on that value. We would play this prop to -185, which is what you’ll find at BetMGM.
Lamar Jackson player prop picks made 12/9/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.