For the first time, the NFL will be taking over Black Friday with a matinée game.
It will be an AFC East battle as the Miami Dolphins head to the Garden State to take on the New York Jets. When this game was originally scheduled to kick off the year, the excitement of a high-powered Dolphins team facing off with the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets roster was certainly the main sell. Oh, how the times have changed since then.
Still, it’s going to be a live NFL football game on Black Friday coming off the three-game Thanksgiving slate, so it will feel like some extra football. We certainly aren’t going to be complaining about that.
With the holiday weekend days away, let’s take a look at the odds and lines as well as the best bet for Friday afternoon.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total
Kickoff: Friday (Nov. 24), 3 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video
Spread: MIA -9.5
Dolphins vs. Jets Matchup Analysis
Do teams even know how to play an afternoon game on a Friday? Hopefully.
The Dolphins and Jets have been as different as can be through the first 11 weeks of the season. Miami is the league’s best offense on the back of Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa finds himself in the middle of the NFL MVP betting odds (+500 on FanDuel) as he ranks top five in passing yards (2,934) and passing touchdowns (21). Having led the Dolphins to a 7-3 record — the best in the AFC East by two games — he still has a shot to take home that hardware. A big performance against the mighty Jets defense may do the trick.
Then, of course, there is Hill and his unbelievable year thus far. Through 10 games, Hill is leading the NFL in receiving yards (1,222) and receiving touchdowns (9) while sitting in second for most receptions (79). Not only does he have a real shot at winning the receiving triple crown this season, but he’s made sure to keep the 2,000-yard season of his dreams in reach, as well. Seeing that the Jets have limited wide receivers to just 106.6 yards per game, this will be the perfect test in terms of the best against the best. Tyreek Hill trying to beat Sauce Gardner and company will be the must-see-TV aspect of this game.
Miami does have some uncertainty on offense, however. Both De’Von Achane and Salvon Ahmed left this past Sunday with injuries. Thankfully, Raheem Mostert has been able to carry the load this season, but it could be a problem if they’re missing either of their other backfield options.
Unfortunately, that’s really where the excitement of the game ends.
Boyle did not look good in relief of Wilson in the Jets’ 32-6 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He went 7-for-14 for 33 yards and an interception. Yet, this is likely better than displaying the definition of insanity with Wilson under center every week. The Dolphins’ defense could have a day against the Jets, especially with them becoming healthy over the last few weeks.
Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in three games — including two last week against rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell. Between him and Xavien Howard, it should be a long day for Boyle behind the Jets’ offensive line.
Realistically, New York should be leaning on Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, but Hall has rushed for fewer than 50 yards in five straight games. He has been a force as a receiver, though, totaling 45 or more receiving yards in four of those five games. Conversely, Wilson is coming off the worst game of his season after finishing with two receptions for nine yards. That can’t be the case for Wilson if the Jets want to have a shot, so expect them to make opportunities for him in this one.
With a spread of 9.5, it will be the Dolphins’ game to lose.
Dolphins vs. Jets Best Bet
Dolphins -9.5 (-115)
This game could get ugly very quick — even if the New York Jets’ defense has what it takes to limit the dynamic Dolphins offense.
Over the last four games, the Jets have scored no more than 13 in each of them. Sadly, that isn’t just a Zach Wilson problem — as much as some want to say it is. Now, he surely wasn’t a solution, but it’s unfair to blame everything on one guy. The playcalling has been poor, and Tim Boyle isn’t radically changing this offense overnight.
Despite how well New York has limited offenses, they’re still allowing 20.4 points per game. The Dolphins lead the NFL in points per game themselves (30.5). Even if the Jets can limit Tagovailoa and Miami to 20 or so points, who is to say they can put together any sort of offense against an improved Dolphins defense? Not I.
According numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics, these two teams couldn’t be more opposite. The Dolphins rank fifth in the NFL with a 9.44 nERD while the Jets are bottom five at -7.67. These two teams are not on a level playing field. It’s why Black Friday should see domination from the Dolphins inside MetLife Stadium.
It’s a big game for the Dolphins — even if the Jets are riding such a bad wave of play right now.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.