This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
After more rain wreaked havoc on the schedule, Thursday’s Miami Open action will now consist of one women’s quarterfinal, three men’s quarterfinals and a women’s semifinal. The clock will likely strike midnight on one Cinderella run on the men’s side, but Miami is becoming the site of an annual ball for another Cinderella. In addition to the three matches discussed below, Carlos Alcaraz will face Taylor Fritz and Petra Kvitova will take on Ekaterina Alexandrova in matches that were previously covered yesterday — Alcaraz and Kvitova are both in good position to advance as a heavy and modest favorite, respectively. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Francisco Cerundolo (+205) vs. Karen Khachanov
Some players just thrive at certain venues, and that’s the case for Cerundolo in Miami, where he has given the boisterous Argentinian supporters plenty to cheer about these past two years. Cerundolo came into last year’s edition of the Miami Open without a hard court ATP Tour win in his career and proceeded to make the semifinals. He’s one match away from getting back to that point, having reached the quarterfinals while dropping just one set. Cerundolo’s path to the quarterfinals included a straight sets win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has already beaten the Argentine twice this year. Khachanov’s coming off a victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas after losing all six of their previous encounters, but Tsitsipas has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which takes just a bit of shine off that triumph over the world No. 3. Both of these players will find themselves right at home playing long, grinding rallies, and this match should come down to the wire, just as their only previous meeting did at the Masters 1000 in Canada last year. Khachanov took that one 7-6 (4), 5-7, 6-3.
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Daniil Medvedev (-2000) vs. Christopher Eubanks
It has been a magical run for Eubanks, who will find himself in the top 100 in the next set of ATP rankings thanks to just his second quarterfinal result on the ATP Tour. He benefited from a lucky draw to get here, though, as Eubanks’ only seeded opponent up to this point was 20th-ranked Borna Coric, who is just 7-6 in 2023. The part-time Tennis Channel commentator deserves credit for hitting his spots while redlining his game and thriving in big moments (4-0 in tiebreaks in the main draw), but as the odds suggest, this is simply a mismatch. Medvedev’s reach should allow him to get more of Eubanks’ big serves back into play, and once the rallies get going, the fifth-ranked Russian — who’s 21-1 in his last 22 matches — should direct plenty of traffic to the vulnerable Eubanks backhand.
Pegula Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Elena Rybakina (-200) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula survived two match points in the quarterfinals thanks to a choke job from Anastasia Potapova, but the No. 3 seed is unlikely to get such a gift from Rybakina, whose winning streak now stands at 12 matches. Rybakina has improved with each match this tournament and dropped only three games against Martina Trevisan in the quarterfinals. While Pegula tends to stall out against the top competition late in tournaments, Rybakina has proven that she belongs in the conversation with Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka atop the women’s game. Pegula beat Rybakina at this tournament last year before Rybakina took her game to the next level, and the American triumphed again in a third-set tiebreak in October, but Rybakina has been the far better player between these two in 2023.