This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Wednesday at the Miami Open is supposed to have all four men’s quarterfinals and the last two women’s quarterfinals, though rain wreaked havoc with the schedule Tuesday. Favorites appear to be in good shape Wednesday on both the men’s and women’s side, but one player who has never lost to his opponent before may not have an easy time keeping that undefeated record intact. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Emil Ruusuvuori (+425) vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner’s rightfully favored in this match, as he’s been the most impressive player in the men’s draw here outside of Carlos Alcaraz, but Ruusuvuori has a better chance to pull off the upset than Tuesday’s other underdogs. The 23-year-old Finn has dropped only one set en route to the quarterfinals and has been clutch on opponents’ break points, saving 21 of 28 through four matches in Miami. Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-0, but by far the closest match came at this very tournament last year, as Ruusuvuori had three match points before Sinner ultimately prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (8). Knowing that he’s pushed Sinner to the limit here before should give Ruusuvuori confidence in this higher-stakes rematch.
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Aryna Sabalenka (-600) vs. Sorana Cirstea
Sabalenka’s likely to come out on top in the first career meeting between these two big hitters. The world No. 2 is off to a 20-2 start in 2023, and her latest win was a convincing 6-3, 6-2 drubbing of Barbora Krejcikova, who is responsible for one of Sabalenka’s two losses this year. Cirstea has looked highly impressive en route to an 8-1 record since the start of Indian Wells, so this may not be a cakewalk, but Sabalenka’s superior serve should give her a clear edge over the 74th-ranked Romanian.
Carlos Alcaraz (-370) vs. Taylor Fritz
Alcaraz is 17-1 in 2023, including straight sets wins in each of his last nine matches. The 19-year-old Spaniard’s level seems to be a notch or two above that of anyone else not named Novak Djokovic at the moment, and Alcaraz should keep rolling right along against Fritz. The 10th-ranked American has notched some big wins since the start of last year but has yet to face the special combination of power, touch and defense that Alcaraz possesses. A letdown from Alcaraz is unlikely, as he needs to defend his title here to maintain the world No. 1 ranking.
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Petra Kvitova (-165) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Kvitova has reached this point without dropping a set, while Alexandrova barely escaped 6-4 in the third against Taylor Townsend in the second round and was the beneficiary of Bianca Andreescu’s unfortunate injury to the ankle area Monday night. Only six spots separate these two in the rankings, but the 12th-ranked Kvitova has a significant edge in experience when it comes to matches in the second week of big tournaments. She has reached the quarterfinals or better at a Grand Slam 13 times, while the 28-year-old Alexandrova has yet to advance past the third round of a Grand Slam. Kvitova’s also had better results this year, with a 14-5 record compared to Alexandrova’s 7-5 mark.